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ABP News Desh Ka Mood Survey hints at the possibility of a Hung Parliament

Desh Ka Mood, leading election programming of ABP news, today released the survey results done by CVoter. The timeline of the survey was from 3rd week of December 2018 to 3rd week of January 2019 spread across PAN India. The survey finding showcased that If the Lok Sabha Elections are held today, the NDA is likely to poll 37.6% votes followed by UPA with 32.2% votes at all India level. Uttar Pradesh which contributes the maximum members of parliament (80) to the Lok Sabha, generally plays the game changer in deciding fate of political parties and alliances.

Mr. Avinash Pandey, CEO, ABP News Network said, We at ABP News Network always try to deliver informative content to our viewers for a comprehensive and coherent understanding of the ongoing happenings in the country. The trends that are showcased by “Desh Ka Mood” have been instrumental in highlighting the prevailing sentiments of the voters that can help draw extrapolations on the fervor associated with the entire election gamut.”

He further added, “Theformat of “Desh ka Mood” show makes it an interesting yet realistic offering and therefore create the most engaging connect with the viewers. The show has elevated itself to the position of one of the most watched shows that brings to the light the palpable excitement around the pre-buzz associated with the election drama.”

Survey Data Results:

All India

32.2

37.6

 

 

30.2

 

 

Party Alliance

UPA

NDA

 

 

Others

 

 

VOTE SHARE – MAIN SCENARIO (WITH MAHAGATHBANDHAN IN UP)

 

All India

167

233

143

NDA total includes Shiv Sena tally

543

Party Alliance

UPA

NDA

ALL OTHERS

 

UPA total includes JDS tally

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                   

SEAT SHARE – MAIN SCENARIO (WITH MAHAGATHBANDHAN IN UP)

 

  1. The formation of Mahagathbandhan in UP and a dearth of new allies is changing the political arithmetic. The BJP/NDA government is by no means unpopular and Prime Minister Modi continues to command a loyal fan base. However, the opposition parties have pooled their political capital to stall BJP's juggernaut.
  1. The survey results hint at the possibility of a hung parliament and ultimately a coalition government can come into existence.
  1. If 2014 was a case of disjointed opposition and rejuvenated BJP, 2019 is a case of united opposition and a measured BJP. The last word on election is yet to be spoken but the script is veering towards a new strand of politics.
  1. In a nutshell a popular Prime Minister is facing stiff challenge from a united opposition. Also, his popularity is facing headwinds due to depressed economic sentiment. A combination of the two may lead to domino effects of driving away the fence sitters and rallying the faithful of opposition. The election to Lok Sabha 2019 is well and truly on with an entire spectrum of probable results. Such a competitive election was inconceivable 6 months ago.

Methodology:

This Poll is part of the largest and definitive independent sample survey tracker series carried out in India over the last 24 years, conducted by independent international polling agency CVoter, a globally renowned name in the field of Socio-Economic research.

For the analytics we are using our proprietary algorithm to calculate the Provincial and Regional Vote share based on the Split-Voter phenomenon. We have used this algorithm to correctly predict many demographic measurements across many democracies. As mentioned; this is a thorough random probability sample; and we are ensuring a proper representative analysis by statistical weighing of the data to make it representative of the local population as per the latest census figures.

Sample Size details:

Release Date: 24th January2019

Desh Ka Mood - Poll Sample Size: 22309

Desh ka Mood - Poll Fieldwork: 3rd Week December 2018 to 3rd Week January 2019

Sample spread: ALL 543 Lok Sabha seats across ALL states

MoE: +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at micro level  @ Confidence interval: 95%

 

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