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ABP News releases results of ‘Desh ka Mood’ survey

Desh Ka Mood, leading election programming of ABP news, today releases the survey results done by CVoter, the timeline of the survey was October 2018 with over 15463 respondents spread across Pan India. The survey finding showcased that If the Lok Sabha Elections are held today, the NDA is likely to poll 38% votes followed by UPA with 26% votes at all India level.

Mr. Avinash Pandey, COO, ABP News Network said, “Riding on the unmatched and innovative programming, ABP news is a leader and the most preferred Hindi news channel when it comes to election. Our endeavor has always been to keep our audiences updated with the current situation on the elections along with a detailed analysis of the latest vote and seat share.”

He further added, “Staying ahead of the industry, ABP started the very first show of 2019 elections on January 1st, 2018, being the first one to set a benchmark in setting decisive trends in terms of covering and engagement during the elections. 

Mr. Yashwant Deshmukh, Founder, CVoter, “It the most transparent and elaborate Survey Research exercise taken up by CVoter and ABP together, we are putting across all possible permutations and combinations together for our audience. Our Audience knows the best, and we are given them a detailed analysis on the upcoming elections 2019. #DeshKaMood is not only reading the public perception across the country, but also for the first time in Indian TV history, opening the Public participation in analyzing the Elections 2019, which arguably are going to be the most critical elections contested in recent times. 

POLITICAL EQUATIONS: AS ON TODAY (Basis Oct 2018 data):

If the Lok Sabha Elections are held today, as per the CVoter Tracker, the NDA is likely to poll 38% votes followed by UPA with 26% votes. With one single big state of Uttar Pradesh hanging in balance, it could single handedly make or break the national numbers.

  • If the much hyped MGB (Mahagathbandhan) of SP+BSP actually materializes, then this could translate into national tally of 261 seats for NDA and 119 seats for the UPA at the moment. The SP+BSP tie up alone could snatch 44 seats in Uttar Pradesh; bring the current NDA tally to less than majority mark.
  • But if Mayawati walks away from the much talked about MGB, then this would result in another NDA sweep, with BJP winning as many as 70 seats in UP alone taking the probable NDA tally to 300 seats, UPA at 116 and rest all others having a combined tally of 128 seats only. In such a scenario, within the NDA, the BJP is likely to win 270 seats while NDA allies are likely to win 30 seats in total. While in the UPA, the Congress is likely to win 89 seats on its own and 27 seats is the potential tally of UPA allies.

Seat and Vote Projection Summarized Analysis

If the Lok Sabha Elections are held today, as per the CVoter Tracker, the NDA is likely to poll 38% votes followed by UPA with 26% votes.

  • Current Scenario:

Without the MGB in Uttar Pradesh (Current Scenario), this would result in another NDA sweep, with BJP winning as many as 70 seats in UP alone taking the probable NDA tally to 300 seats, UPA at 116 and rest all others having a combined tally of 128 seats only. In such a scenario, within the NDA, the BJP is likely to win 270 seats while NDA allies are likely to win 30 seats in total. While in the UPA, the Congress is likely to win 89 seats on its own and 27 seats is the potential tally of UPA allies.

 

  • Alternate Scenario: Within the same vote share, with MGB (Mahagathbandhan – Alternate Scenario) of SP+BSP, then this could translate into national tally of 261 seats for NDA and 119 seats for the UPA at the moment.

Modi Sarkar’s strongest performance was centered around price rise, corruption and security policy. In the month of October-18 the government has suffered from negative equity on all three counts. However, personal popularity of Prime Minister Modi and that of central government are still comfortably ahead of the respective ratings of UPA-II in January 2014 survey. There is a minor revival in fortunes of Rahul Gandhi, but he still trails by a large margin in leadership sweepstakes.

Interesting to note is that Modi seen as the most suitable candidate for the post of PM (with 53.9% choosing him over others), point to note is that this percentage has been declining over the period of time. Less and less people choose him as the mist suitable candidate. Rahul Gandhi’s likeability is increasing from 12.6% in Jan’18 to 22.8% in Oct’18

When asked whom do people prefer between RaGa and NaMo as the PM of India, Modi clearly wins, 57% prefer him over Rahul Gandhi. But again, this number is declining from 66% in Jan’18 to 57% in Oct’18. Rahul’s preference, though lower than Modi, has been gradually increasing from 28% in Jan’18 to 36% in Oct’18

Finally, is this dip in ratings of the NDA-II a bottom or an inflection point? The race for 2019 is beginning to get interesting!

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