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BJP losing seats due to defection but still forming govt in UP?

Ahead of the upcoming assembly elections, INDIA NEWS - JAN KI BAAT January 2022 Opinion Poll on Uttar Pradesh predicts Yogi Adityanath's return as Chief Minister, but also shows a slight decline in seats due to the defection of OBC strongman Swami Prasad Maurya & his loyalists to the Samajwadi Party

 

 

Seat share & Vote share predictions

INDIA NEWS - JAN KI BAAT Opinion Poll has projected victory for Yogi Adityanath led BJP government in Uttar Pradesh by predicting a seatshare of 226 - 246 for it. The projected voteshare for the BJP is in a range of 39 - 40% 

Samajwadi Party which  seems to be getting stronger due to the back to back inductions of OBC leaders, including that of OBC strongman and former U.P Labour Minister Swami Prasad Maurya, is projected to get anywhere between 144 - 160 seats. As per the Opinion Poll, Akhilesh Yadav's party may end up with a voteshare of 34.5% - 36% 

BSP whose chief Mayawati doesn't seem to be aggressively campaigning this time, could get anywhere between 8-12 seats & a voteshare of 13 - 13.5%

And, Congress whose campaign is tailored around Priyanka Gandhi Vadra's 'Ladki Hoon, Lad Sakti Hoon' slogan is

projected to get a single digit seat share which falls in the range of 0-1 and its projected voteshare is in the range of 4-6%

WILL DEFECTORS WIN SEATS?

As per the INDIA NEWS - JAN KI BAAT Opinion Poll, those leaders who've defected from the BJP in the last one month could win their existing seats if given tickets by Samajwadi Party. Out of 12 leaders who've defected, 9 leaders are projected to win their seats. Swami Prasad Maurya who joined the SP today is projected win from his constituency Padrauna.

Uttarakhand

CLOSE FIGHT BETWEEN BJP & CONGRESS

Uttarakhand predicts a neck & neck fight between BJP & Congress with a slight edge to Pushkar Singh Dhami led BJP government.

Seat share & Vote share predictions

BJP is projected to get anywhere between 34 - 38 seats in the 70 seat assembly and Congress which is yet to announce its Chief Ministerial candidate may end up getting anywhere between 24 - 33 seats. Aam Aadmi Party, which is a new entrant in Uttarakhand, is projected to get anywhere between 2-6 seats.

As the INDIA NEWS - JAN KI BAAT Opinion Poll, BJP's projected voteshare is expected to be 38%. Congress may get a projected voteshare of 36%, AAP could get a voteshare of 13%, where as BSP & others could end up with 2% & 11% projected vote share.

WHO'S THE MOST PREFERRED CHOICE AS CM? 

Pushkar Singh Dhami is the most preferred choice as CM, with 42% respondents to the survey saying they want him to return as Chief Minister in Uttarakhand. Senior Congress Leader, Former Uttarakhand Chief Minister Harish Rawat is the second choice with 24% respondents saying he is their preferred choice. BJP leader Anil Baluni is also a preferred choice with 18% respondents to tye survey saying they want to see him as Chief Minister of UTTARAKHAND.

Punjab

ARVIND KEJRIWAL'S AAP FORMING GOVT IN PUNJAB

INDIA NEWS - JAN KI BAAT Opinion Poll gives a clear majority to Aam Aadmi Party in Punjab. AAP is projected to get anywhere between 58-65 seats in the border state. 

Seat share & Vote share predictions

In what could become the biggest election headline, Aam Aadmi Party is projected to form government in Punjab with an absolute majority. As per the January edition of the INDIA NEWS - JAN KI BAAT Punjab Opinion Poll, AAP could get anywhere between 58 - 65 seats and end up with a voteshare of 38-39%.

Meanwhile, Congress which is in the midst of constant infighting between Sidhu camp & Channi camp is projected to bag anywhere between 32 - 42 seats and may get a projected voteshare of 34.5% - 35%.

Akali Dal is predicted to retain its strongholds but may not see a sharp incline in its seats. As per the INDIA NEWS - JAN KI BAAT Opinion Poll, Akali Dal may get anywhere between 15 - 18 seats & a voteshare of 19% - 20%. BJP which recently has accused Congress of deliberately compromising Prime Minister Narendra Modi's security,  is projected to get 1-2 seats. Captain Amarinder Singh's Lok Congress Party may not even get a single seat.

GOA

BJP TO EMERGE SINGLE LARGEST IN GOA, AAP WILL COME SECOND 

INDIA NEWS - JAN KI BAAT GOA OPINION POLL projects 18-22 seats for incumbent BJP under Pramod Sawant. The Opinion Poll has thrown up an interesting finding with AAP, which is new entrant in Goa getting more seats than Congress.

Seat share & Vote share predictions

Despite being jolted by a spate of defections, BJP is projected to emerge as the single largest party in Goa with the JAN KI BAAT - INDIA NEWS Opinion Poll predicting 18 - 22 seats for the saffron party in the 40 seat assembly. It is projected to get a voteshare in the range of 37% - 40% which is at least 5% more than what it got last time.

Meanwhile, Aam Aadmi Party which got no seats last time, will not only open its account but is also projected to get more seats than the Congress Party. While the Congress is projected to get 5 - 6 seats, AAP could have a slender edge over it with the INDIA NEWS - JAN KI BAAT Opinion Poll predicting 7-9 seats for it in the January edition of the Opinion Poll series. Aam Aadmi Party's voteshare is projected to be between the range of 23% to 24% and Congress, which as of now, seems to be at number 3 in Goa, may end up with 19%-20% voteshare in the state.

TMC which is planning to expand its footprint nationally may not end up winning a single seat, its pre poll ally - Maharashtra Gomantak Party - is projected to get 1-2 seats. As per the INDIA NEWS - JAN KI BAAT Opinion Poll, TMC ally MGP is projected to win its stronghold seat MARCAIM. Independents and other parties in the fray could get anywhere between 4-6 seats in Goa and their voteshare is projected to be anywhere between 11% - 18%.

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