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Dentsu forecasts 10.6% ad spend growth in India in 2019; global growth to dip to 3.8%

The latest Dentsu Aegis Network Ad Spend forecasts show an increase in ad spends in India to 10.6 per cent from 9.6 per cent, strengthened in particular by events such as this year’s Lok Sabha Elections and coverage of the Cricket World Cup in England & Wales. In its research covering 59 markets, global growth is forecast at 3.8 per cent in 2019, amounting to $625 billion, reflecting a relatively benign economic environment and continued broad-based recovery. 

The report states that the pace of ad spend growth is decelerating from 4.1 per cent in 2018. In 32 out of the 59 markets included in the forecasts, growth is forecast to slow down in 2019, but globally growth will likely accelerate to 4.3 per cent in 2020. 

The Dentsu report shows that Digital remains the dominant force in ad spend and is forecast to cross the 40 per cent-mark for the first time in 2019. On the other hand, Mobile remains the fastest growing platform and is forecast to grow by 19.2 per cent in 2019. In China, Mobile is forecast to account for more than three-quarters of 2019 digital ad spends for the first time. As far as Mobile’s share of ad investment is concerned, it will make up 29 per cent of global ad spend in 2019 and more than 30 per cent of global ad spend in 2020. 

Online video is forecast to grow by one-fifth in 2019 and is the fastest growing category within digital ad spend, driven by viewing habits on mobile devices and the popularity of streaming services. 

Meanwhile, the decline of traditional media channels’ share of global ad spend is expected to endure. In 2019, TV is expected to make up just over one-third of global ad spend, its lowest share since Dentsu’s forecasts began in 2000. Television’s ad spend growth is forecast to decline to 0.5 per cent in 2019, but is expected to show some signs of recovery by 2020, reaching 1.6 per cent. Along with TV, newspapers and (to a lesser extent) magazines, radio and Out-Of-Home (OOH) ad spend will all experience a slightly smaller share of global spends this year and in 2020. 

While traditional media spend is expected to decline by -0.7 per cent this year, there are some signs of recovery on the horizon. OOH is showing the highest growth rates, forecast to reach 4 per cent in 2019 to reach a 6.3 per cent share of total ad spend, encouraged by digital innovation that creates ads using contextual information like references to the region or weather to help resonate with audiences. 

Methodology 

Advertising expenditure forecasts are compiled from data collated from around the Dentsu Aegis Network’s brands and based on the group’s local market expertise. Dentsu uses a bottom-up approach, with forecasts provided for 59 markets covering the Americas, EMEA, Asia Pacific and Rest of World by medium – Television, Newspapers, Magazines, Radio, Cinema, Out-of-Home and Digital Media. The advertising spend figures are provided net of negotiated discounts and with agency commission deducted, in current prices and in local currency. For global and regional figures, Dentsu converts the figures centrally into USD with the average exchange rate. The forecasts are produced bi-annually with actual figures for the previous year and latest forecasts for the current and following year.

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