GroupM TYNY revises global ad growth, India to see over 20% ad growth

Released at the midpoint of 2021, GroupM’s This Year, Next Year Global Mid-Year Media report sees advertising growth for the year far exceeding previous expectations, and has hence, done a major revision of the forecast for this year and beyond.

Industry overall forecast:

  • 2021 growth: 19% (excluding U.S. political advertising), a significant upward revision from GroupM’s December forecast and 15% higher ad revenue than 2019.
  • GroupM TYNY now expects global advertising, including U.S. political, to exceed $1 trillion in 2026, up from $641 billion in 2020 and $522 billion in 2016.
  • Concentration within the industry has increased over this time: in 2020, the top 25 media companies represented 67% of total advertising revenue. That same group of companies accounted for 42% in 2016.
  • Several markets should see better than 20% growth, including the U.K., Brazil, China and India.
  • Many others will rise by the high teens, including Canada, Australia and the U.S.

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Digital advertising

GroupM TYNY now forecasts 26% growth for all forms of pure-play digital media versus 15% at the time of its December update.

Expectations for other years are also raised, although to a lesser degree.

Television advertising

Television is now expected to grow by 9.3% in 2021, an improvement from GroupM TYNY’s prior 7.8% expectation.

Beyond this year, GroupM expects low single-digit growth for the broadly defined medium, including, what it calls, Connected TV+. It is estimated that globally Connected TV+ inventory accounted for $16 billion in media company ad revenue, up by 25% over 2020 levels. GroupM anticipates Connected TV+ ad revenue will grow to $31 billion globally by 2026.

Audio advertising

Expectations for audio were raised significantly in this update, with a forecast now at 18% growth rather than December’s 8.7% level.

However, following 2020’s 27% decline, even with these revisions, GroupM does do not expect the medium to return to 2019 levels any time soon.

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OOH advertising

Outdoor advertising should fare well, growing by 19% in 2021. Although GroupM’s 2021 forecast represents a slightly slower pace of growth than it anticipated in December, 2022 expectations are now slightly higher than before.

In the longer term, OOH is benefitting from growing interest in the medium and is aided by new digital formats that allow for incremental sources of demand to emerge.

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