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Hindi content fails to surprise; Hollywood saves the day this time

Ranveer Singh-starrer Jayeshbhai Jordaar is slated to release tomorrow across 2,500 screens in India; the film is estimated to report an opening day collection of INR 6-7cr and a lifetime collection of INR 60-65cr; collections are below par as compared to earlier movies of Ranveer Singh, as the latter’s films have done an average lifetime Box Office collection of INR 150cr (last three films); competition from the recently released Hollywood film Doctor Strange and the below-par nature of content may be the reason for lower collections for this film.
“In terms of recent releases, Runway 34 and Heropanti 2 have reported tepid collections of INR 25-30cr each, which is largely in line with our estimates; Hollywood film Doctor Strange has reported collections of INR 90cr until yesterday and is slated to report lifetime collection of over INR 220cr, which will boost growth prospects in Q1FY23; no positive surprises yet in Hindi content since Kashmir Files and Gangubai, which were released more than two months ago,” said Karan Taurani, senior analyst at Elara Capital.
“We have pared our Hindi Box Office growth estimates for Q1FY23 towards 46% growth (earlier estimate of 60% growth) vs pre COVID levels (FY20), due to 1) a below par performance by recent Hindi films and 2) postponement of a large film (Maidaan). Hindi Box Office growth in Q1FY23 will depend a lot upon the performance of remaining large budget films this quarter - Bhool Bhoolaiya (Kartik Aaryan) and Prithviraj (Akshay Kumar). We expect FY23 Box Office revenue to breach pre pandemic levels (FY20) by 5% helped by 1) content backlog, 2) regional films doing well in Hindi dubbed version and 3) multiple large budget films lined up,” he said.
On advertising revenue front, he added, recovery remains to be slow, as the recovery rate in Q1FY23 may not improve vs Q3FY22 (the only normalised quarter so far in post COVID era), due to lower inventory fill ratio for multiple medium/large budget films disappointing on Box Office collections in the recent past; on the flipside, comeback of annual ad. deals coupled with momentum in retail advertising remain tailwinds, which will offset the above negative impact (poor content). We thereby maintain our ad. Revenue recovery estimate of 70% in FY23 (vs pre COVID- FY20); a positive surprise by multiple films consecutively beating Box Office expectations, may lead to a better ad. revenue recovery vs expectations, which in turn will drive upgrades,” stated Karan Taurani.


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