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India inches closer to the beginning of the end of COVID-19 pandemic

Following India’s assiduous fight against the rapidly evolving COVID-19 pandemic since the past six months, the country finally sees signs of green shoots with the faster recoveries and sharp decline of new cases. Tracking the coronavirus pandemic in India for the past several months, Times Fact-India Outbreak Report, released its latest projections and highlights that India is projected to peak with 7.87 lakh active cases on September 02 according to most likely scenario, after which the curve may hit a plateau till September 16, following which the cases are projected to show a steady decline. The report shows that following India's peak, daily active case counts are projected to decline by November 17.

Showing positive signs of flattening the COVID-19 curve, the report indicates that a continued vigilance to practise social distancing and safety measures will be critical to stabilize and control the pandemic and in achieving India’s recovery from COVID-19.

Times Fact-India Outbreak Report: Key takeaways

  1. R0 for India is slowly going down to 1.55 from 1.63 in last 20 days. The growth rate of India has come down to 2.5%. The recovery rate has gone up to 74%. However, there are still huge number of cases being reported daily (65K - 70K) cases per day.
  2. The net new additions (Confirmed – Recovered) cases have come down from 16,000 per day to 10,000 per day.
  3. The report adds projections for 17 new cities and districts including Madurai, East Godavari, Patna, Thiruvananthapuram, Srinagar amongst others. With the major cities displaying consistency in slowing the rates of daily COVID-19 cases, the focus has turned to the smaller cities. A substantial chunk of India's latest cases is now being recorded in India's Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities.
  4. All the major states are beginning to peak in and around first 15 days of September with R0 close to are below 1.5
  5. Cases of Karnataka, Bihar and Andhra Pradesh have been growing rapidly with 12, 12 and 14 days doubling time respectively.
  6. Most of the states has been able to keep the growth in control and a lot of the urban areas have seen the peak (Delhi, Mumbai, Pune, Thane, Chennai etc.). 
  1. Growth rates for Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Gujarat, West Bengal, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Haryana has significantly come down below 3% (7 Days Average).
  2. There are high growth states Andhra Pradesh (AP) and Odisha (OD) where the growth rate is in 7% - 10% and the doubling rate hovering around 6 -7 days.

Times Fact-India Outbreak Report: State and City Wise Projections For details on the study findings and

 

Most Likely Model

SEIR Model

India, States & Cities

Projected Peak Date

Active Cases on peak date

Projected End Date

Projected Peak Date

Active Cases on peak date

Projected End Date

             

 

India

02-Sep

787550

17-Nov

16-Sep

787349

03-Dec

Maharashtra

14-Sep

223323

18-Nov

14-Sep

199709

18-Nov

Tamil Nadu

31-Jul

57968

21-Oct

31-Jul

57968

21-Oct

Delhi

27-Jun

28329

29-Oct

27-Jun

28329

29-Oct

Kerala

03-Sep

19712

31-Oct

03-Sep

17079

01-Oct

Telangana

28-Aug

25517

21-Oct

28-Aug

29666

21-Oct

Uttar Pradesh

01-Sep

63943

01-Nov

01-Sep

73243

01-Nov

Rajasthan

13-Aug

14762

05-Nov

13-Aug

14762

18-Oct

Andhra Pradesh

13-Aug

90840

12-Nov

11-Sep

99827

12-Nov

Madhya Pradesh

16-Sep

13397

07-Nov

10-Sep

11188

07-Nov

Karnataka

29-Aug

91697

23-Oct

29-Aug

97163

23-Oct

Gujarat

01-Sep

15212

28-Oct

02-Sep

15136

28-Oct

West Bengal

06-Sep

31655

06-Nov

06-Sep

33820

06-Nov

Bihar

01-Sep

45367

04-Nov

01-Sep

49374

04-Nov

Haryana

12-Sep

7492

27-Oct

19-Sep

7666

27-Oct

Odisha

14-Sep

41031

19-Nov

14-Sep

46591

17-Nov

Punjab

13-Sep

17164

03-Nov

13-Sep

26143

03-Nov

Mumbai

23-Jun

29990

12-Nov

23-Jun

29990

24-Oct

Chennai

05-Jul

24891

22-Oct

05-Jul

24891

22-Oct

Ahmedabad

25-May

5681

18-Oct

25-May

5681

18-Oct

Bhopal

03-Aug

2380

21-Oct

03-Aug

2380

21-Oct

Indore

26-Sep

4574

13-Nov

23-Aug

2320

13-Nov

Jaipur

22-Sep

2376

02-Nov

14-Aug

3761

02-Nov

Surat

05-Aug

3837

27-Oct

05-Aug

3837

03-Oct

Pune

31-Jul

49821

11-Nov

31-Jul

49821

11-Nov

Bengaluru

28-Aug

41503

17-Nov

28-Aug

45793

12-Nov

Thane

19-Jul

38389

17-Nov

19-Jul

38389

17-Nov

Kolkata

29-Aug

7182

09-Nov

29-Aug

8943

09-Nov

Madurai

14-Jul

4199

02-Nov

14-Jul

4199

02-Nov

East Godavari

13-Aug

15872

18-Oct

25-Aug

17985

18-Oct

Patna

07-Sep

5571

02-Nov

07-Sep

6661

23-Oct

Thiruvananthapuram

14-Sep

7277

07-Nov

07-Sep

6962

07-Nov

Srinagar

02-Aug

2777

25-Oct

02-Aug

2777

25-Oct

 

For details on the study findings and insights, visit - https://www.timesnownews.com/times-facts 

Methodology: Led by insights and efficacy, Times Fact India Outbreak Report a joint endeavour by Times Network and global data and digital consulting firm Protiviti, has achieved an accuracy rate of 90% for active cases for its previous projections. The report showcases several pertinent data points which includes India’s possible peak points, state & city wise projections and active cases over a period of time and report follows a sophisticated and vigorous mathematical modelling. Parsed by reputed data scientists and quantitative experts, Times Fact India Outbreak Report is based on two models, The Time Series Model, which involves factors in data across time periods in other countries affected by Covid-19 in addition to two polynomial regression models adapted to Indian data, and the Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovered (SEIR) model which is based on an estimation of a reproduction rate of the epidemic. Drawing critical information from central government data, state government bulletins, and daily updates provided by the Health Ministry, the report is a holistic COVID -19 projection for the nation.

Disclaimer: The COVID-19 Pandemic, is rapidly evolving, with new findings and insights being discovered daily. Stories based on the research document contains the observations and conclusions arrived at by Protiviti and Times Network basis the data and information examined and relied. Stories based on this document do not constitute or claim to serve as an advisory for any medical, safety or regulatory action and cannot be referred and relied in any disputes for challenging any other claims, reports, analysis of third parties on similar subject.

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