India news - Jan ki baat opinion poll predicts return of Yogi Adityanath in UP

INDIA NEWS - JAN KI BAAT Opinion Poll predicts victory for BJP in Uttar Pradesh. The saffron party  which got 308 seats on its own last time is projected to get anywhere between 233 to 252 seats.

METHODOLOGY USED BY JAN KI BAAT

The Opinion Poll survey was conducted on the basis of the 'PROBABILITY MAP OF OUTCOME MODEL OF ELECTION PREDICTION'. The survey was conducted by JAN KI BAAT's field investigators across all 75  districts of India's largest state between November 22nd to December 20th 

SAMPLE SIZE: 20,000

 The sample size of exhaustive survey was conducted 20,000 where researchers & analysts conducted one to one & one to many interactions and collected constituency wise, region wise, demography wise data & analysed by working on the quantitative outcome projection with qualitative variables. 

SEAT SHARE PROJECTION FOR U.P

As per the INDIA NEWS - JAN KI BAAT Opinion Poll, BJP is projected to get anywhere between 233 to 252 seats, Samajwadi Party could get anywhere between 135 to 149 seats, the Congress continues to remain in single digits and is projected to get anywhere between 3-6 seats, Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party could bag 11-12 seats and others may end up getting anywhere between 1-4 seats

VOTE SHARE PROJECTION FOR U.P

INDIA NEWS - JAN KI BAAT has predicted a voteshare of 39% for BJP, Samajwadi Party is predicted to get its highest ever voteshare of 35%, Bahujan Samaj Party may end up with a voteshare of 14%, Congress is predicted to get 5% voteshare and other parties are projected to get 7% voteshare 

55% RESPONDENTS WANT YOGI BACK AS CM

As per the INDIA NEWS - JAN KI BAAT Opinion Poll, Yogi Adityanath is the most preferred choice as Chief Minister with 55% respondents wanting to see him return at the helm of affairs in Uttar Pradesh. 31% said Akhilesh Yadav should become CM, followed by 10% giving Mayawati a thumbs up and a mere 2% saying Priyanka Gandhi Vadra should be CM of Uttar Pradesh

 MODI WAVE IN UTTAR PRADESH?

75% respondents to the INDIA NEWS - JAN KI BAAT Uttar Pradesh Opinion Poll survey are of the view that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's welfare schemes are a huge factor and will ecdntut favour the BJP in Elections 

WHAT IS THE TOP ELECTION ISSUE IN UTTAR PRADESH?

23% respondents to team INDIA NEWS - JAN KI BAAT that they will cast their vote on the issue of development. 24% said they're going to vote on the basis of caste & religion and 21% said they will vote on the basis of law & order. While 10% said they will vote on the issue of inflation. Meanwhile for 1% Ram Mandir is a factor on the basis of which they'll cast their votes

THE ANTI INCUMBENCY FACTOR

31% respondents to the INDIA NEWS - JAN KI BAAT Opinion Poll survey say that there is anti incumbency against the Yogi Adityanath govt, 42% are of the opinion that there's anti incumbency against the candidate & 27% say that there's no anti incumbency at all. Responding to another question on if people are happy with government's work, 52% responded in affirmative & 48% said they are unhappy 

OVERALL HEADLINES & FINDINGS OF INDIA NEWS - JAN KI BAAT OPINION POLL

 1) YOGI ADITYANATH TO RETURN AS CHIEF MINISTER OF UTTAR PRADESH

2) BJP PROJECTED TO WIN MORE THAN 235 SEATS

3) BJP GAINING FROM MAYAWATI'S DEPLETING VOTESHARE

4) BJP TIGHTENS GRIP IN AWADH & BUNDELKHAND

5) DESPITE SP GAINING IN PURVANCHAL, BJP REMAINS AHEAD

 6) MORE WOMEN WITH BJP THAN SAMAJWADI PARTY 

7) PM MODI'S WELFARE SCHEMES DRIVING WOMEN TOWARDS BJP IN WESTERN U.P

8) MUSLIM, YADAV VOTERS ARE STRONGLY WITH AKHILESH

9) MAYAWATI'S VOTESHARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER DECLINE

10) BJP PROJECTED TO LEAD IN HATHRAS & LAKHIMPUR KHERI 

11) 60% JATS IN WESTERN UTTAR PRADESH WITH RLD

12) CONGRESS VOTESHARE WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10%

13) BJP VOTESHARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 39% 

14) ALLIANCE WITH SMALLER PARTIES HELPING AKHILESH

15) DIVISION IN KURMI PATEL VOTES IS DENTING BJP VOTESHARE