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India’s Digital Economy to touch $800 billion by 2030: RedSeer

India’s consumer digital economy which was pegged at USD $85-90 billion in CY 20, is expected to become a USD $800 billion market by 2030, according to reports released by homegrown consulting firm RedSeer at their flagship event Ground Zero 5.0. The digital economy includes 60% of travel, 40% of non grocery retail, 30% of education, 25% of food and beverages services and 6% of Pharma/Grocery going through digital channels by CY30.

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The Ground Zero 5.0 event was attended by Amitabh Kant, CEO of Niti Ayog along with T.V Mohandas Pai, Chairman, Manipal Global Education Services and Sanjeev Bikhchandani, co-founder, Info Edge along with other stalwarts of the Startup Industry who participated in the day-long panel discussions on retail, mobility, logistics, digital ads, fintech and IPOs. 

Commenting on the overall digital ecosystem, Anil Kumar, founder and CEO of RedSeer, said, “Over the last one decade, entrepreneurs have dedicated themselves to solve for the specific needs and pain areas of Indian consumers. Today, 50% + customers say they use online services because of convenience. Few years back almost 70% + used to say the key reason is discounting but  with the hit of Covid, digital services have undoubtedly served the customers very well, which is evident in high customer satisfaction and customers willingness to keep using the digital as a key channel to fulfill their needs. The next wave of entrepreneurs will create innovations which will make the Indian model successful globally.”

India to become 3rd largest online retail market by CY30

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Online retail is set to become the third-largest online retail market by scale by CY30 with an annual gross merchandise value (GMV) of $55 billion in CY21 and $350 billion in CY30, said RedSeer at its flagship event Ground Zero 5.0, according to reports released by homegrown consulting firm RedSeer at their flagship event Ground Zero 5.0.

According to the data released by RedSeer Consulting, 88% of the online shoppers that will be added between 2020-2030 will be from Tier 2+ cities. Further, $>7 billion cumulative incremental online retail transactions to be added from Tier 2+ city customers over CY 20-30 while easily more than $~150 billion cumulative incremental online retail GMV to be added from Tier 2+ city customers over CY 20-30. The adoption factors that will drive the growth for the next few years are:

  • Companies have started to focus on tier 2 cities
  • Growing online spends by 'Digital Natives' and supply-side innovations
  • COVID-19 has caused an inflection in e-commerce penetration across city tiers
  • Lowering costs of servicing tier-II and other smaller cities

Additionally, kiranas are expected to achieve approximately achieve a $1.5 trillion sales by CY30. The growth will be driven by:

  • Platforms that are enabling these kiranas technologically and digitally
  • Cashless payments
  • Book Keeping and EB2B offerings

New-Age Logistics players created an opportunity of 500,000 employment for gig workers in 2020

E-Logistics in India has become the fastest growing market globally with over 3 billion shipments in 2020. India traditionally had an inefficient supply chain with a slow and undemocratic access. Today ~ 90%+ of the orders fulfilled by the online commerce get done by the new age logistics, an industry which has come up only in the last one decade and has solved for the above challenges through technology and customer centric mindset. Further, three out of the top 10 logistics players in India are today the new age (e- logistics) players. The new age logistics players are expected to deliver 2.5 billion D2C shipments by 2030.

With the rise of eCommerce, the need for specialized delivery service emerged, which led to the overall growth of the logistics segment. Emergence of this sector created 500,000 employment for gig workers in 2021 across captive and 3PL. The new-age 3PL logistics players have delivered 850 million shipments in 2020.

New age logistics players have reduced the average time of delivery by 2/3rd in last 7 years, have covered nearly all the pincodes across India through enabled deep tech solutions to serve the different type of customer needs and requirements like same day delivery, hyperlocal, service enabled etc. E-logistics has been fulfilling the needs of the small city customers. Increasing  coverage across India and faster delivery, enabled Tier-2+ cities to account for 50%+ shoppers to Indian eCommerce by the end of 2020.

Other emerging trends

Other sectors in the new-age economy have also been strongly impacted by the pandemic. A number of new trends are emerging in these various sectors which will shape the ecosystem going forward.

Shared mobility dips but personal mobility soars in demand

According to RedSeer research, shared mobility saw a sharp decline due to the 2nd wave led lockdowns in the last two months. Although the autos segment recovered the fastest, the overall sector merely clocked 18 million rides, a drop from 113 million rides in January last year. However, while the shared mobility is dipping, personal mobility space is riding on a wave of strong traction seen since last year.

While auto OEMs have responded with relevant offerings to democratize access to cars, tech platforms are also accelerating focus on digitizing the car ownership journey. Online used car transaction penetration to grow ~9x in the next ~10 years. Another category that is ripe for digital disruption is the car service & repairs market which is still a highly fragmented market which faces challenges like inefficiencies, bloated pricing and poor experience for both consumers and service workshops. This segment is expected to penetrate ~15% of this highly fragmented market by CY30.

With rise in digital content, advertisements see higher demand

On the other hand, online content is seeing phenomenal growth leading to the overall growth of the digital ad industry as well. Digital content is emerging as the bellwether of demand creation for time spent.

India, one of the largest economies, is surging ahead on content and smartphone usage. Monthly active users (MAU) have become democratised with increasing adoption of varied digital services and platforms. Further, another example of democratization is seen in an increasingly largely base of active digital content users now coming from Tier 2+ cities with the top two categories being Facebook-owned WhatsApp followed by news aggregators. 

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