India to hit peak of 2.6 lakh active cases on July 15
Tracking the coronavirus pandemic in India for the past several weeks, Times Fact-India Outbreak Report, has released its July projections of the COVID-19 pandemic at both national and state levels.
Led by insights and efficacy, the report has achieved an accuracy rate of 96% for active cases, with an overall prediction level of 92% plus for its previous projections. The report showcases several pertinent data points which includes India’s possible peak points, state & city wise projections and active cases over a period of time and report follows a sophisticated and vigorous mathematical modelling. The models are dynamic and with fresh data drawn from central government, state government bulletins, and daily updates provided by the Health Ministry, the graphs are changed accordingly on a weekly basis, thereby presenting the best projections. (Please refer to the attached images in the mail to the see previous forecast accuracy and latest projection for the country and critical states/cities)
As per the latest projections, India will hit a peak of 2.6 lakh active cases on July 15, according to the ‘most likely’ scenario, and a peak of 3.9 lakh cases on July 25 as per the SEIR model.
Times Fact-India Outbreak Report: Key takeaways for July
- India is projected to hit its peak of 2,59,967 active cases according to the ‘most likely’ model on July 15 and 3,86,916 active cases as per the SEIR model on July 25.
- Maharashtra, which is the worst-hit state, is projected to hit its peak of 82,723 active cases according to the ‘most likely’ model on July 5 and 1.1 lakh active cases as per the SEIR model, on July 17.
- Tamil Nadu is projected to hit its peak of 30,247 active cases according to the ‘most likely’ model on July 5 and 32,909 active cases as per the SEIR model on July 6.
- Delhi is projected to hit its peak of 47,461 active cases according to the ‘most likely’ model and 47,159 active cases as per the SEIR model both on July 4.
- Gujarat is projected to hit its peak of 6,761 active cases according to the ‘most likely’ model and 7,044 active cases as per the SEIR model both on June 29.
- West Bengal is projected to hit its peak of 7,149 active cases according to the ‘most likely’ model and 10,417 active cases as per the SEIR model both on June 30.
- Mumbai and Chennai are projected to hit their peaks of 37,194 active cases and 21,268 active cases on June 30 and July 3, respectively, according to the most likely model. As per the SEIR model, Mumbai is projected to hit is peak of 38,899 active cases on July 15 and Chennai will reach its peak of 19,054 active cases on July 6, respectively.
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Methodology: Parsed by reputed data scientists and quantitative experts, Times Fact India Outbreak Report is a joint endeavour by Times Network and data research firm Protiviti. The report is based on three different models, The Percentage Model, which involves mapping trends from Italy and the United States onto India, the Time Series Model, which involves factors in data across time periods in China and South Korea in addition to two polynomial regression models adapted to Indian data, and the Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovered (SEIR) model which is based on an estimation of a reproduction rate of the epidemic. The report takes into account the healthcare capacity of the nation and its states, to understand shortfall of beds and availability of ICUs, in the event of an escalation. Based on a predictive model which leverages verified big data and new technologies for effective decision making, the report aims to empower the administrative authorities to spot possible hotspots, critical gaps and build capacity to meet the arising. The report encapsulates six national projections and includes individual analysis for 8 states and 4 cities.
Disclaimer: The COVID-19 Pandemic, is rapidly evolving, with new findings and insights being discovered daily. Stories based on the research document contains the observations and conclusions arrived at by Protiviti and Times Network basis the data and information examined and relied. Stories based on this document do not constitute or claim to serve as an advisory for any medical, safety or regulatory action and cannot be referred and relied in any disputes for challenging any other claims, reports, analysis of third parties on similar subject.