NewsX-CNX exit Poll on the Gujarat&Himachal Pradesh assembly election 2017

The NewsX-CNX Exit Poll for the Gujarat Assembly Elections 2017 has delivered the most credible survey results for the much-anticipated assembly elections in the state. The Gujarat polls have been one of the most closely-watched and hard-fought political battles this year that saw the country’s political heavy weights including Prime Minster Narendra Modi and Congress President-elect Rahul Gandhi launch salvos at each other as their parties made a dash to grab the 182 seats of the state assembly.

The NewsX-CNX Exit Poll for the Gujarat Elections 2017 forecasts that the BJP is set to bag 110 of 120 seats (tally in 2012 – 115), thereby cementing its position yet again in the state despite a turbulent election campaign that saw several charges and counter-charges flying in all directions. The exit poll also indicates that Congress will not be too far behind and are estimated to bag 65 of 75 seats, a marked improvement from the 2012 elections where they had managed 61 seats. Others in the state are likely to bag around 2 to 4 seats as against the 6 seats they had won in 2012.

The more interesting exit poll numbers come in the form of vote share in the state of Gujarat. According to NewsX-CNX Exit Poll, 45% of voters went with the BJP this year, a sharp decline of -02.85% from 47.85% vote share in 2012. This in turn has led to a huge gain for the Congress, which is reported to have secured a vote share of 42.55% in 2017, a significant boost of +3.62% from the vote share tally of 38.93% in 2012.

This is likely to be a positive push for the Rahul Gandhi-led Congress party as it starts taking steps in the right direction under the new party leadership by denting the vote share of the ruling BJP in the home state of the party’s star campaigner Narendra Modi.

With the Karnataka Assembly Elections around the corner, the increase in faith of the electorate in Congress may prove to be a headache that the BJP strategist Amit Shah may have to deal with, even as the party hopes to change the fortunes in the Congress-ruled state.

Another interesting deduction from the Gujarat Assembly Elections 2017 Exit Poll is that the Patidar agitation failed to create any major dent despite Hardik Patel’s efforts. This will definitely play on the national narrative of reservation politics wherein people are seen to be voting more on the agenda of development and youth-centric issues.

The exit poll results for the Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections 2017 are out after the model code of conduct. Leaders of both Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have asserted that their respective parties will win the elections. While Congress leader Rahul Gandhi addressed many rallies in the state, BJP’s star-studded campaign had big names like Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party president Amit Shah.

A poll by NewsX-CNX suggests that Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will be successful in painting Himachal Pradesh saffron when the results are declared on December 18. The current analysis by NewsX in collaboration with CNX says that BJP would get 45.40% of votes whereas Congress would get a 37.75% vote share. The poll further says that those between the age group 18 and 35 have voted for BJP. While the Hindus in the state voted for the saffron party, the Muslims have shown their support for Congress by giving the party majority of the votes. The rural voter turnout as suggested by the poll is 44.68 and for urban, it is 46.12%.  While BJP is winning 19 seats in Kangra and 15 in Mandi, Congress is trailing behind with 5 and 9 seats in the respective areas. So, going by the exit polls, BJP is clearly winning the elections and will form the government in the hill state.