Life in the new normal: A full summer without Covid could jumpstart the economy

After two years of severe disruption due to the global pandemic, businesses and people are now better prepared for any Covid surge. Thus, the third Covid wave with the Omicron variant failed to dampen consumer sentiments, even though the surge in the early part of 2022 again saw curfews and strict restrictions. The third wave coincided with what has become the first festive season of the year with Pongal, Makar Sankranti, Bihu being celebrated across the country.

This period did see consumers throng market places, amid Covid restrictions. The sale period of Republic Day further added to the market frenzy.

Adgully spoke to a cross-section of industry experts to find out how marketers and consumers are learning to beat the Covid fear and what it means for the market sentiments in the year ahead.

According to the consumer confidence index report, global consumer confidence remains steady and secure despite the emergence of Omicron. Apart from better preparedness, other key factors driving positive consumer sentiments include growing scale of vaccination adoption, high past infection ratio, businesses embracing digital tools to ensure continuity & resilience and the overall rate of economic recovery.

Dr Sandeep Goyal, MD, Rediffusion, noted, “The impact of the third wave has been far lower than the earlier two waves. Offices were hit on attendance, but most remained open in the interest of continuity of business. Sectors impacted have been aviation and hospitality with restricted travel; and live entertainment like movie theatres. Also, eating out was hit, though ordering in proportionally increased. E-commerce continued to thrive and so has the automotive sector.”

Shekhar Banerjee, Chief Client Officer and Head – West, Wavemaker India, also agreed that the third wave is unlikely to deter any ad spends for the year. He cited three reasons for this:

• AdEx in previous waves got impacted because of reduced mobility and lockdowns which we are not seeing in this wave.
• Most of the festivities in January are regional and they don’t attract major AdEx spends.
• If it is the end of the financial year for many advertisers, this is also the start of the calendar year for a lot of advertisers, which gives them ample time to plough back any spends which they hold back in January and February.

Harish Bijoor, Brand Guru & Founder, Harish Bijoor Consults Inc, also believed that the Omicron surge will not dull consumption sentiment. “Consumers have factored in the Omicron deluge as a way of life now. It will, therefore, be business as usual. If it is business as usual with the consumer, it should be business as usual for media spends,” he added.

However, Naresh Gupta, Managing Partner and Chief Strategy Officer, BangInTheMiddle, differed here as he said, “I wish I could say that the third wave has not impacted consumer sentiment, but that is not true. The third wave played a huge damper on the economic sentiment. The world had started to open up, but it was back to home. The impact may not be very large, as the wave did not last a long time, but for many categories like food, fashion, travel, etc., this may mean a 10% contraction over the past few months. While Makar Sankranti is not too big of a shopping festival, yet the lack of festive celebration meant that retail did not get the benefit that it normally gets. The world will remain cautious and the recovery will be slower, however the festive time is really far away and no one can say where and how the whole pandemic will pan out.”

Nisha Singhania, Co-founder & Director, Infectious Advertising, too, felt that it has definitely been a setback as people were returning to normalcy. At the same time she added that most people believe that the worst is over and that the third wave was not as bad and we can overcome it. “As to the impact of Omicron on the overall market, including the first festive season, I don’t anticipate much of a change,” noted Singhania.

She further said, “People and marketeers are far more geared to cope with the ongoing pandemic. We have learnt to do business during it and despite it. Strategies are evolving keeping the new normal in mind and people are overall optimistic.”

According to Nikhil Kumar, Vice President - India & SEA, mediasmart (An Affle Company), “Businesses as well as consumers have both adapted well over the last two years to shifting a large part of their interactions and engagement to online and connected channels. We believe that the last quarter will continue to thrive in this growth phase in terms of online commerce, digital advertising and Internet adoption. Additionally, sentiment across industry verticals have witnessed a positive tonality and should continue to prosper in this quarter as well.”

Sandeep Goyal added here, “After two arid seasons, summer products like ACs, coolers, and fans will hopefully have a good season. Also, domestic holidays may pick up too. I think Makar Sankranti was a bit subdued. But Pongal was largely at par. So, not much of a downer there. Caution, but still celebration seemed to be the norm. A full summer without Covid could jumpstart the economy.”

While the recent surge in COVID-19 again pushed off the plans of going to office, travelling freely, etc., this did not have a repercussion on consumer sentiment as they will continue with their ‘life from home’, noted Nikhil Kumar, adding, “Therefore, we trust digital channels for reach, awareness, impact and commerce will continue to thrive. Consumers have evolved over the last couple of years in regard to their internet consumption habits and hence, emergence & growth of Connected TVs is going to be a key channel for advertisers & media professionals.”

He further said, “The first festive season of 2022 saw a large-scale adoption of CTV advertising across verticals like Retail, Auto-car, Digital native, Consumer durables, FMCG amongst others, with CTV emerging as a key focus of the advertiser’s digital reach. From a celebration standpoint, while the Omicron curtailed outdoor activity, but with better preparedness and vigilance from both advertiser and consumers’ lens, the celebratory sentiment was carried forward to online festive events & adapting to what we call the ‘new normal’. The success of such online festive campaigns lies upon factors such as sophisticated channels and deeper touchpoints, accuracy of reaching the right consumer, at the right time via Omnichannel Audience targeting, CTV advertising with household sync and real-time incrementality impact measurement, where the mediasmart platform excels.”