Manorama News' 'NavaKerala Manassu': Key Insights for 2024 Elections

In a significant move towards understanding the pulse of the Kerala voters, Manorama News embarked on a significant undertaking by associating with Voter's Mood Research for an extensive opinion poll ahead of the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha Elections. With a mammoth sample size of 28,000 participants, this survey, known as ‘NavaKerala Manassu’ – which translates as ‘The Mind of the New Kerala’ - was the largest of its kind in Kerala, aiming to capture the detailed nuances of the current political mood. The performance of the state-central governments, the factors that could influence elections in the state and at the center, the performance of the Members of Parliament (MPs), and the chances of candidates in every constituency if elections were to happen now were all evaluated in this poll.

The participants of the ‘NavaKerala Manassu’ survey chose Rahul Gandhi as the most popular national leader, rated the Modi government's overall performance as average, assessed the opposition's national-level performance as good, and regarded the current performance of Kerala MPs as good. 

The survey also predicted clear majority for UDF in 12 constituencies including Kasargod, Wayanad, Kozhikode, Malappuram, Ponnani, Chalakudy, Ernakulam, Idukki, Kottayam, Alappuzha, Kollam, and Trivandrum. They are also expected to win in Kannur, Alathur, Thrissur, Pathanamthitta, and Attingal despite a tough competition. UDF is leading in 17 constituencies in total. 

On the other hand, LDF is expected to have a clear majority in Mavelikkara and is expected to win despite close contests in Vadakara, and Palakkad.

The vote share expected is as follows:

UDF – 43.78%

LDF – 37.47%

NDA – 15.50%

Others – 3.25%

The participants selected Pinarayi Vijayan himself as the preferred Chief Minister, evaluated his government's overall performance as good, and appraised the opposition's state-wise performance as good as well. The survey further concluded that the Bharat Jodo Yatra worked in favor of the Congress.

The survey was broadcast on television from December 11 to December 13, providing an engaging and informative spectacle for viewers. The panel was led by the prime anchors of Manorama News, including Johny Lukose, Shibu Joseph, Shani Prabhakaran, and Ayyappadas. 

Manorama News has a track record of delivering accurate results, as demonstrated by its close alignment with the final outcomes in both the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the 2021 and 2016 Kerala State Assembly elections. The channel's commitment to precision and reliability positions this opinion poll as a benchmark for understanding public sentiment, setting the stage for informed and enlightened decision-making among voters.