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ABP News- CSDS- Lokniti Karnataka Pre-Poll Survey 2018

Important Findings of the Survey

Congress leads the race against BJP in vote percentage but still not able to clinch majority

JDS may become the King Maker according to the survey

Lingayat Separate Religion Card played by Congress may not work as Lingayats still intend to vote for BJP

Siddaramaiah first choice as Chief Minister followed by Yeddyurappa

BJP seen as more corrupt and faction ridden than Cong; Congress seen as being more nepotistic

Most voters see Congress as better suited to bring development to Karnataka than BJP or JDS

 

As the polling day for Karnataka Assembly Elections approaches, Pre Poll Survey Conducted by ABP News- CSDS- Lokniti predicts a hung assembly in the state. Ruling Congress party is ahead of rival BJP in vote percentage and seat share but may still not reach the majority mark of 213.

 

According to the Pre Poll survey conducted by ABP News- CSDS- Lokniti Congress is expected to get 92-102 seats out of total 224. While BJP may get 79-89 seats. JDS which is expected to get 34-42 seats may play a vital role in forming the government. In fact if these predictions convert into results, even BJP can form the government if it gets JDS on it’s side.  

 

 

Seat Share

Congress

92-102

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)

79-89

Janata Dal Secular+ (JDS+)

34-42

Others

1-7

 

According to the survey Congress is expected to get support of 38 per cent people of Karnataka, while BJP is expected to get 33 percent votes. JDS with 22 percent votes is looking to get the role of King Maker.

 

 

Voting intention %

Congress

38

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)

33

Janata Dal Secular+ (JDS+)

22

Others

7

 

Just before the elections were announced Congress played separate religion card to the Lingayat Community. But this step does not look like working in favour of Congress. Lingayats have been traditional voters of BJP and according to the survey 61 percent Lingayats still intend to vote for BJP. BJP leads among Upper Castes also but consolidation of Other OBCs, SC, ST and Muslims around Congress give them a deciding edge over BJP in vote percentage.

 

Congress’s Lingayat strategy has failed but AHINDA communities consolidating around it

 

 

Congress (%)

BJP (%)

JDS+ (%)

Others (%)

Upper castes

23

49

23

5

Vokkaligas

27

19

47

7

Lingayats

18

61

11

10

Other OBCs

40

36

19

5

SCs

48

24

21

7

STs

46

29

19

6

Muslims

65

17

14

4

Others

38

36

16

10


Sitting Chief Minister Siddaramaiah is first choice of people of Karnataka to continue for the second term. Siddaramaiyah is choice of 33 percent respondents while BJP’s CM candidate B S Yeddyurappa is favoured by 27 percent respondents as next Chief Minister of the state.

 

Spontaneous CM choice of voters: Siddaramaiah followed closely by B S Yeddyurappa

 

%

Siddaramaiah

33

Someone else from Congress

5

B S Yeddyurappa

27

Someone else from BJP

2

H D Kumaraswamy

22

Someone else from JDS

2

Others

1

No response

8

 

People of Karnataka seem happy with the performance of Siddaramaiah as the Chief Minister of Karnataka. Around 72 percent people expressed satisfaction with his performance. On the other hand people of Karnataka are also happy with the performance of Narendra Modi lead Central Government. 68 percent people express happiness with the performance of Modi Government.  

 

Most people satisfied with performance of Siddaramaiah and Modi governments

Assessment of…

Fully Satisfied with it

(%)

Somewhat Satisfied

with it

(%)

Somewhat Dissatisfied

with it

(%)

Fully Dissatisfied with it

(%)

Siddaramaiah government’s performance

29

43

15

10

Modi government’s performance

23

45

16

12

 

 

Both Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi are attacking each other with issue of corruption. But people of Karnataka have a clear mandate over the issue of corruption. According to 44 percent respondents  BJP is more corrupt than Congress. While Congress is more nepotistic party.

 

BJP seen as more corrupt than Congress

 

Cong

%

BJP

%

JDS

%

Which party is more corrupt?

41

44

4

 

According to people of Karnataka Congress is more suited for the development of the state. 38 percent respondent said it’s Congress which can bring development to the state.

 

Most voters see Congress as better suited to bring development to Karnataka than BJP or JDS

 

Cong

%

BJP

%

JDS

%

Which party is best for Karnataka’s development?

38

32

24

 

Congress lead of vote percentage is coming from villages, Cities and Metros. While BJP is only leading in small towns that too with mere 2 percents.

 

Voting intention by locality – Congress leads in villages and big cities, BJP in small towns

 

Congress (%)

BJP (%)

JDS+ (%)

Others (%)

Villages

39

32

23

6

Small towns

36

38

20

6

Cities

40

34

21

5

Metro

34

31

23

12

 This Pre-Poll Survey was conducted in Karnataka by Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) for ABP News. The survey was conducted from April 27 through May 3, 2018 among 4929 voters in 224 locations (polling stations) spread across 56 assembly constituencies (the State has a total of 224 assembly constituencies).

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