Polstrat-NewsX Pre-Poll Survey 2: Who’s Ahead? What Are The Issues?

UTTAR PRADESH

BJP To Retain Power With Lesser Seats

The Polstrat-NewsX pre-poll survey predicts the BJP to retain power in Uttar Pradesh in the upcoming assembly elections. Of the 403 seats, BJP+ is expected to win 218-223 seats with a 40.9% vote share.

SP+ is expected to emerge as a strong opposition, securing 152-157 seats with a 36.4% vote share. BSP is expected to get 19-22 seats with a 12.3% vote share, INC is expected to win only 5-6 seats with a 5.9% vote share. Others are expected to get 0-2% seats with a 4.5% vote share.

UP Wants Yogi To Return As CM

47.51% of the respondents want to see Yogi Adityanath retain his chief ministerial candidature in 2022. The survey reveals that Yogi Adityanath is equally popular amongst female (49.14%) and male (51.51%) respondents, more popular in the age bracket 36-45 years (55.62%), amongst Upper Caste Hindus (64%), and in the Awadh region (62.74%).

SP's Akhilesh Yadav has emerged as a strong contender against Yogi Adityanath. 38.93% of the respondents opted for Akhilesh as their choice for Chief Minister in 2022. Votes of the remaining respondents split amongst Mayawati (5.31%), Priyanka Gandhi Vadra (3.42%), and others (4.83%).

Religion, Law & Order To Draw Votes

46.52% of respondents believe that religion will be a deciding factor in the polls, 4.32% said to some extent; while 39.23% said it is not, and the remaining 9.94% can't say/ don't know.

A majority of respondents (78.68%) lauded the improvement in the law & order situation of the state. However, only 47.30% of the total respondents see the change as drastic, 31.38% say there has been only a slight improvement, and 12.67% of respondents say that the law & order in the state has deteriorated under the Yogi government.

UTTARAKHAND

Seat Share & Vote Share Predictions

In Uttarakhand, the Polstrat-NewsX pre-poll survey has predicted BJP's sweeping victory in assembly elections 2022. Of the 70 seats, BJP is expected to win 37-40 seats with a 39.4% vote share. INC is expected to be a close second by winning 27-30 seats with a 36.5% vote share, and AAP is expected to secure only 3-4 seats with an 11.7% vote share.

Uttarakhand Backs Dhami

40.73% of the respondents want current Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami to retain the post in 2022, followed by Harish Rawat (37.01%), Col. Kothiyal (13.65%), others (8.6%). Pushkar Singh Dhami is more popular among females (50.1%) than males (41.6%), in the above-56 age bracket (57.14%), and among Upper Caste Hindus (54.32%).

Major Issues

Among various issues, 51.88% of the respondents said jobs are the single biggest voting issue, as compared to hate speech(20%), government stability(11.29%), and COVID management (6.93%).

PUNJAB

Congress Likely To Lose Power

In the run-up to Punjab assembly elections, the Polstrat-NewsX pre-poll survey predicts Congress is unlikely to retain power in the next term. Of the 117 seats, Congress is predicted to win 42-45 seats with a 37.2% vote share. The Aam Aadmi Party, seeking to solidify its position in Punjab, is predicted to defeat Congress by a considerable margin with 52-55 seats with a 39.7% vote share. SAD is predicted to get 17-20 seats with a 16.6% vote share, while BJP is predicted to get only 0-2 seats with a 2.7% vote share.

Bhagwant Mann Most Popular Choice For CM

The Polstrat-NewsX pre-poll survey finds that 38.92% of the total respondents want to see AAP’s Bhagwant Mann become the next Chief Minister. Current CM Charanjit Singh Channi (Cong) and SAD’s Sukhbir Singh Badal are tied for second place in this regard, with a meagre difference. Channi was favoured by 20.78% of the respondents, whereas Sukhbir Badal had 20.34% of respondents supporting his candidature for the post.

Punjab Wants Jobs

The survey tried to identify the issues that will be the major deciding factors when the state goes to the polls. Punjab is heavily divided on some of the major issues in the state. Even though employment opportunities emerged as the single largest issue among voters, the issue is the top priority for only 32.5% of the respondents. The next two major issues were development (19.8%) and sacrilege (13.9%). MSP for agricultural produce, which was a key demand during the anti-farm law protests, will be a significant issue for 10.4% of the voters.

GOA

Easy Win For BJP

The Polstrat-NewsX pre-poll survey predicts Bhartiya Janata Party’s thumping victory in Goa’s upcoming assembly polls. Of the 40 seats, BJP is expected to win 21-25 seats with a 35.6% vote share. The Aam Aadmi Party is expected to get 6-9 seats with a 23.4% vote share, while Congress is expected to get only 4-6 seats with a 20.1% vote share.

Favourite CM Candidate

BJP’s Pramod Sawant is the favourite candidate for the post of Chief Minister of Goa with 40% of the respondents supporting him, whereas, 30.91% of respondents opted for Congress’ Digambar Kamat. A considerable share (29.09%) of the respondents preferred other candidates as the state’s next CM.

Biggest Issues

36.36% of the respondents said employment would be the biggest voting issue followed by infrastructure (15.45%) and COVID management (14.55%). Mining in the state was the main issue for just 7.27% of the respondents.