Trends that could go sideways

A Yogi Berra-attributed quote – It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future – is one of my favourites. Sure, this is a season to call out trends that will shape this year or even the next decade. Our own global trends survey has identified durable trends for the post-pandemic world. But what about some trends that can go sideways? These are essentially harbingers of a likely big change, but could get impacted if a few things fall or don’t fall in place. Amit Adarkar, CEO, Ipsos India, presents his take on three such trends that could go sideways: 

Irrational need for speed

Technology and digitisation have driven extreme speed of delivery across sectors. Before the pandemic, Q-Commerce, as a term for all things quick, wasn’t even invented! More than a year of being locked up at home with multiple screens and fast internet connections leading to an explosion of products and services that are being delivered within minutes, to the extent that 30 minutes’ delivery appears slow nowadays. Undoubtedly, the need for speed has been led by supply-side rather than demand side. An app, a strong technology backbone, and a solid (outsourced) logistics setup have fueled the Q-commerce app ecosystem. 

It reminds me of the early days of eCommerce in India, where everything was promised and delivered cheaper online as compared to brick-and-mortar (Perhaps we should have called it C-commerce for cheap commerce in retrospect). But now it is all about Q-Commerce. When you ask consumers if they would like things fast, the answer is (obviously) a resounding ‘yes’, but how quick is quick really? Is 20 minutes not quick enough? Is there a big incremental delight in delivering in sub-10 minutes? Does the perceived utility of a 12 minutes’ delivery vastly exceed that of a 15 minutes’ delivery? 

The “Need for speed” trend may lose ground if the supply ecosystem collapses or becomes too expensive to manage. There are already murmurs of delivery/ logistics systems coming under intense pressure due to Q-commerce. There are also some indicators of certain segments of overexposed population opting for slow but ‘self-delivered’ experiences. After all, you cannot equate quick coffee home delivery from your favourite café with enjoying the same beverage with someone at the café itself or even with brewing a cuppa the old way at home. 

Too much optimism

Our Primary Consumer Sentiment Survey (PCS) has shown consistent improvement in consumer sentiment for the last eight months. Our ‘What Worries The World (WWTW)’ survey shows that seven out of 10 urban Indians feel that our country is moving in the right direction. Some of this optimism is surely realised in actual demand. The real estate market is bullish. The automotive sector posted one of the best years in history due to the chip supply constraint. Retail participation in stock markets (or crypto currency!) has grown multifold. But, at times like this, we must be cognizant about a few tenets of behavioural science- that people at times show too much confidence or optimism, people could suffer from a confirmation bias (you look for things that you believe in – such as a rally in stock markets) and anchoring (not basing your judgment on facts, but on your own perceptions). 

Will the optimism party go away? Well, inflation could be a party pooper (Our own inflation survey shows that six in 10 of urban Indians claim to have paid higher prices for essential commodities during the last six months), tightening of US Fed interest rates could dampen the spirit and we are still under the ever-growing Omicron threat which could affect the sentiment. 

The rise & fall of 2 min entrepreneurship

One of the offshoots of the pandemic is the phenomenal growth of the digital start-up ecosystem. What gets talked about is the formal start-up ecosystem – how more than 60 Unicorns came into existence in 2021; how 200+ more Unicorns will come into existence over the next 12-18 months, IPOs getting launched at dizzy evaluations, etc. 

What goes relatively unnoticed is the re-kindled entrepreneurial spirit amongst common people and SMBs, with the rise of social media influencers, home-cooks, hyper-retailers & wellness experts. This is obviously a good trend for people who provide services/ products as well as for people who avail them. There is maddening growth in the beginning - anyone with an idea, smartphone and some gumption can become an entrepreneur. What happens when these businesses need scaling up? Will these businesses be able to take on large and funded corporates? Will they maintain the same levels of service and delivery when they grow? Will they face regulatory hurdles? Only time will tell…

Here is hoping that these trends actually don’t actually go sideways!