India News announces exit polls for WB, TN, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry

Finally, it is curtains on one of the longest election calendar drawn up by the Election Commission of India for five states – West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry.

It was an action packed election season no lesser than the IPL with all the high action drama, the twists and turns that embellished the festival of democracy. At the fag-end of the eight phase of Bengal elections, one felt exhausted what with India going though one of the worst ever health crisis in two centuries, the mood however in these election states is palpable.

India News along with Jan-Ki-Baat which carried out one of the most exhaustive exit polls spanning over 60 days suggests clear mandate to BJP in three states – West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry, while after two successive terms of AIADMK, Stalin-led DMK will claim stake to form government in Tamil Nadu. Kerala continues to be under wraps and the suspense will be over this Sunday when the results are declared as UDF and LDF are equally pitted.

Pradeep Bhandari, CEO and Founder of Jan-Ki-Baat who led the survey with over 150 researchers with one of the largest sample sizes as opposed to other surveys also had a long questionnaire that throws up a massive data that facilitates a deeper and wider public perception and pulse of the voter in the five states.

In West Bengal, the exit polls suggests that the BJP will get anywhere between 162 – 185 seats, the TMC will end up with 121– 104 seats, while Sanjukta Morcha with Congress and Left anywhere between 3 to 9 seats. However, the vote share between the two leading parties in the state with BJP at 46 - 48 percentage and TMC 44 - 45 percentage is intriguing as only a few percentages are making the gap wider by 50 to 70 seats.

In Tamil Nadu, it is `son-rise’ time as MK Stalin who has been waiting in the wings for three decades is finally going to wear the mantle of the top post. The exit polls says DMK will get 130 to 110 seats, while BJP allied AIADMK is expected to get 102-123, which many say is not a bad number to land given the fact that it was battling anti-incumbency in the absence of their supreme leader J Jayalalitaa who passed away in early 2017.

It is another disappointing outcome at the hustings for Kamal Hassan, who might be the only winner from his political outfit MNM. In the Dravidian state, the exit polls isn’t giving a major difference in vote share. While DMK plus Congress gets 43 to 41 percentage, the AIADMK and BJP combine is clocking 42.5 to 39.75 percentage which would be some kind of consolation for both who were heavily invested this election.

In Assam, the BJP is expected to retain its government even though political pundits had said the NDA will face blowback in the face of anti– CAA and NRC protests. Of the total seats of 126, the exit polls has given the NDA70 - 81 seats while the UPA is expected to get 55 – 45. While the exit poll gives clear mandate to BJP, who will be the next chief minister of Assam is very interesting to watch out for Hemanta Biwas will play a pivotal role in the power game.

The suspense over Kerala continues to remain as India News-Jan-Ki-Baat has given numbers that suggests that it might be anybody’s day this Sunday. While the Piniyari Vijayan-led LDF is expected to get anywhere between 64 – 76 seats, the Congress-led UDF is also looking at 71 – 61 seats, and the NDA at 2 to 4 seats. Political observers say it might be the Rahul Gandhi moment in God’s Own Country as crowds swelled wherever he held rallies. Rahul represents Waynad parliamentary constituency and has become his second home after being defeated in Amethi.

In Puducherry, the NDA is expected to make history as it is expected to stake claim, making it the only other state (read UT) where it has expanded its footprint after Karnataka in South India. While the NDA is expected to get anywhere between 19 – 24 seats, UPA will get 11 - 6 seats according to the survey.

EXIT POLLS

WEST BENGAL

PROJECTED SEAT SHARE RANGE

BJP 162 – 185

TMC 121 – 104

SANJUKTA MORCHA 9 - 3

IND 0

OTH 0

PROJECTED VOTE SHARE RANGE (%)

BJP 46 - 48

TMC 44 - 45

SANJUKTA MORCHA 8 - 5

OTH 2

TAMIL NADU

PROJECTED SEAT SHARE

DMK 130-110

AIADMK 102-123

OTHERS 2 -1

PROJECTED VOTE SHARE (%)

DMK+ 43 to 41

AIADMK+ 42.5 to 39.75

MNM 3 to 4.5

AMMK 3 to 4.5

NTK 7 to 8.5

OTHERS 1.5 TO 2.25

ASSAM

PROJECTED SEAT SHARE RANGE

TOTAL SEATS: 126

NDA: 70 - 81

UPA: 55 – 45

OTH: 1 - 0 (RAIZOR DAL)

PROJECTED VOTE SHARE RANGE (%)

NDA: 41 – 42

BJP: 32 – 33

AGP: 7 - 7.5

UPPL: 2 - 2.5

UPA: 40.5 - 41.5

INC: 30.5 – 31

KERALA

PROJECTED SEAT SHARE RANGE

TOTAL SEATS: 140

LDF: 64 – 76

UDF: 71 – 61

NDA: 4 - 2

PROJECTED VOTE SHARE RANGE

LDF 40.5 – 43

UDF 40 – 38

NDA: 15 – 18

OTH: 4.5 – 1

PUDUCHERRY

PROJECTED SEAT SHARE RANGE (%)

NDA: 19 – 24

UPA: 11 - 6

OTH: 0

PROJECTED VOTE SHARE RANGE

NDA 48 - 53

UPA 37 - 28

OTH 15 – 19