Media Majors Predict Almost Identical Global Ad-spend Growth

Three leading media groups GroupM, IPG Mediabrands (Magna Global) and ZenithOptimedia have predicted more than 4% growth in global ad- spends in the year 2016.

As per Group M, global ad-spends would see a reasonable growth in 2016, leading to an increase of 4.5% to nearly $520 billion. For this year the growth is pegged at 3.4% this year (close to $497 billion). If one compares it to midyear predictions by WPP Media groups there is a downgrade. Midyear predictions pegged the growth at 4.8% for 2016 and 4% for this year.

As per the report ‘Media marketplace will continue to face fragmentation as consumers have more content choices and access driven by continued adaption to mobile and OTT devices.’  Though it would lead to more time spent with media, it would also lead to more fragmentation and customisation.

Media fragmentation and its impact on measurement too was touched upon in the report. ‘The ability to measure audiences in this increasingly more complex environment using consistent metrics and methodology is presenting significant challenges. This is affecting media allocation and valuation, which can upset spending trends as more sophisticated data applications and measurement metrics are utilized in media portfolio management,’ the report stated.

As per Magna Global (part of IPG Mediabrands) predictions global ad- spends to grow to $526 billion in 2016, which is growth of 4.6%.

However the report states that the growth would be 4.1% in 2015 and 3.7% in 2016 if special events like the U.S. political elections and Olympics are neutralized for 2014, 2015 and 2016, It estimates global digital revenues to reach 38% market share by 2017 year-end. This would make it the leading media globally, with television being at second place with market share of 37%. The report also estimates that mobile advertising will increase to 55% of total digital advertising by 2018 from the current 33%

Asia-Pacific is pegged to become the second largest region (behind North America) with 5.6% growth this year. India would lead the way with 16.3% growth this year. China which is witnessing a 9.9% growth this year is expected to see lower growth (5.2%) in the coming year.

ZenithOptimedia, as reported earlier, predicts global ad expenditure to grow 4.7% in 2016, reaching $579 billion. It estimates this year’s global expenditure total will reach $554 billion, up about 3.9%.